PHOTO USA Today Sports Images If your goal is to win your Week 1 matchup in fantasy football this season, I got a guy for you: Anthony Richardson.
The Colts open at home against the Texans in what could be the shootout of the week.
Richardson passed for 223 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 40 yards and another score on Opening Day—his NFL debut—last September in a 31-21 home loss to the Jaguars.
It made the rookie one of the highest-scoring quarterbacks in any fantasy league that week and gave the few who could have projected such success a leg up on the competition.
But as those who pumped their chests over Richardson can attest, fantasy football titles aren’t won in Week 1. And they’re definitely not won with quarterbacks who play only two full games before suffering a season-ending injury.
There’s a reason NFL teams don’t run the wishbone, the option, or, for the most part, even the tush push.
Quarterbacks are too valuable to put at risk.
Alas, the Colts have no choice.
They’ve committed to a take-on-linebackers guy who ran 103 times in his final collegiate season at Florida, pairing 17 TD passes with nine more on the ground.
Apparently they weren’t watching when the 49ers tried something similar two years earlier, only to see Trey Lance suffer a knee injury in his very first start. He hasn’t been heard from since.
Richardson will likely be asked to make adjustments this season. In other words, run less recklessly.
But he’s not an NFL-level passer, so he has only one way to be successful on this stage: by running. We’ve seen where that’s likely to take him—and your fantasy team—if you draft him as your starter.
Here are four other popular selections high on my DON’T DRAFT list for 2024:
Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Saquon Barkley is gearing up for his first season with the Eagles. Photo credits: Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK The Eagles finished last season in disarray and have since lost arguably their most valuable offensive player: center Jason Kelce.
Barkley has been imported into what’s supposed to be a better situation, but is it? How will he feel if every short-yardage carry—where most rushing touchdowns are scored—is being bogarted by the quarterback?
The Bengals’ Zack Moss, who is projected to be picked about 100 spots later, will outscore Barkley this season. You heard it here first.
Puka Nacua, Rams
October 15, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) warms up before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium. credits: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports The 2023 fantasy surprise is being taken as someone’s top wideout—even in the first round—and he’s just not that good.
OK, he was last year. But that was, in essence, in the absence of a healthy Cooper Kupp, who just two years earlier had been that guy.
Kupp, at his best, has proven to be better than Nacua was last season. The old Kupp is back, not that most fantasy drafters have noticed.
It says here: You’re better off snatching Kupp in the fourth round than Nacua in the second.
Davante Adams, Raiders
Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) celebrates his touchdown in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. credits: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports The depth of quality wide receivers was never greater than last season. And since then, another half-dozen or so potential fantasy starters have been drafted.
I count at least 20 wideouts I’d rather have than Adams, yet he’s being drafted among the top 10. I’m not sure why.
Entering his 11th season, Adams isn’t the same receiver he was in Green Bay. His total receptions went from 123 in his final year with the Packers to 100 in his first with the Raiders, and his TD total dropped from 14 to eight the last two years.
Those aren’t WR1 numbers, and the fact the Raiders can’t decide among mediocre options at quarterback isn’t encouraging, either.
It says here: There’s no way he should be going ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons
Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) runs for a touchdown after a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. credits: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports Travis Kelce’s stock has taken a big-time dip this year, which is totally understandable. It has nothing to do with any kind of recent lack of commitment to his craft.
Rather, it’s all about the evolving depth at the tight end position. There are so many fantasy-caliber tight ends these days that you no longer have to make Kelce a priority, nor consider a tease like Pitts.
The Falcons should be a lot better offensively than they’ve been in recent years. They have a real quarterback (or two), a superstar running back and a fantasy-caliber wideout.
What they also have is one of fantasy’s biggest disappointments in the last two years: A tight end who thinks he’s a wide receiver (in other words, he doesn’t like to block) but who runs disciplined patterns like an offensive tackle.
Ah, but he looks good doing it. Don’t be fooled. Take the Raiders’ Brock Bowers instead.
Don’t trust me? Ask any Georgian.
