December 25, 2024

Thursday August 22 MLB Best Sports Betting Picks & Predictions

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If Wednesday was challenging, it’s looking like hold-my-beer Thursday when it comes to the modest betting menu. 

The MLB starts early but doesn’t play a full slate; the WNBA only has one game on the calendar and we remain two days away from college football. 

Even European soccer isn’t a great option right now; the only matches are qualifying rounds for continental competitions. That means you’re comparing unlike things on teams most people know little about. That typically isn’t a great way to win.

But there are some appetizing options available—plays that should hold solid value. Here are our best bets for August 22.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

The crash has been coming for the Guardians.

Cleveland played above its skis in the spring and is falling back to the pack. Cleveland’s lead in the AL Central is down to a precarious 2.5 games, and the Yankees have the much better pitching in this game.

After a shaky start this season, Gerrit Cole has rounded back into form. 

Upon closer inspection, it appears that his struggles had less to do with him and more to do with the Mets’ inexplicable hold over the Yankees in 2024. Cole’s ERA reads 4.15, but against teams not based in New York, his ERA is a sparkling 2.56. Other than the two Yankees-Mets debacles, Cole has allowed more than two runs in a start just once.

Cleveland has scored one or zero runs in three of its past four games. The Guardians have lost four of their past five, and three of them came by at least two runs. With Gavin Williams both coming off a poor start at Milwaukee and having failed to make it to the fifth inning in three of his past six starts, the Yankees should hit early and often.

Yankees -1.5 (+120 at BetRivers)

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Does Paul Skenes still mean an automatic under? It depends on which version of the Reds’ offense shows up. Cincinnati’s hitters have been highly inconsistent, often alternating by series between dominant and disastrous. Against Toronto, the Reds whacked the ball, scoring 20 runs in three games. When they hosted Kansas City, the Reds scored just three runs for the entire weekend.

The pattern suggests the disastrous version of the Reds showing up in Pittsburgh, but there are two reasons that the over is still the play. First, Skenes has shown he’s human over his past few starts. Over his past five starts, three of them have followed the same formula: pitch into the sixth inning, allow two runs and give way to the bullpen. There’s nothing wrong with that; it means Skenes has merely fallen from otherworldly to very good.

The other reason is that the Pirates might not need the Reds’ help to hit the over. Cincinnati has allowed seven or more runs in five of its past six games, and starter Nick Lodolo has allowed eight runs in two of his past four starts. If Skenes is anything less than perfect, the over should be in play.

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Over 7.5 (+102, DraftKings)

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Angels have shown all their cards: when the opponent has a chance to make the playoffs, they’re interested in playing spoiler. When the opponent is playing out the string, they’re out to lunch. 

Los Angeheim is 3-11 SU in its past 14 games against teams that definitely won’t make the playoffs, including an ugly three-game sweep against these same Blue Jays.

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The Jays have been wildly inconsistent with their pitching as of late, which is why it’s better to back them on the runline than mess with the total. Even though Toronto’s bullpen has been statistically terrible all year, the Jays manage to bunch their problems into the same game. The bullpen sometimes does pitch well, like it did when it held the Cubs to two runs in 11 innings last week.

Toronto won all three games in Anaheim by at least two runs, and the Angels’ total disinterest seems likely to repeat itself north of the border.

Blue Jays -1.5 (+100, FanDuel)

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