You couldn’t blame major league executives for being jealous of Mike Elias at this year’s trade deadline.
The Baltimore Orioles’ general manager had everything an executive could want at one of the most pivotal times of the season.
His team was a legitimate championship contender. His young players were blossoming into future superstars. And perhaps most importantly, Elias had the capital to plug the few holes within Baltimore’s otherwise sturdy roster.
Trading for a top-tier starter or a shutdown reliever would have bulletproofed the Orioles amid their quest for their first world championship in 41 years.
But in the end, Baltimore acquired neither.
Instead of landing an elite pitcher to boost their average staff into a great one, the Orioles acquired a cluster of arms that do not bolster Baltimore’s pitching corps into a championship-caliber unit.
Neither Zach Eflin nor Trevor Rogers resemble the elite starter that would have created a fearful 1-2 punch with ace Corbin Burnes.
And while Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto will strengthen the bullpen, the Orioles still lack a reliable closer. It is already hard to trust the excruciatingly volatile Craig Kimbrel here in the first week of August. One can fathom the anguish of sending him in to protect a one-run lead in October.
Let’s dive deeper into Baltimore’s new quartet of pitchers, starting with Rogers, the biggest red flag among the four.
The 26-year-old was an intriguing pickup from the Miami Marlins, given that he was a first-round pick in 2017. But Rogers’ Baseball Savant metrics table contains lots of blue, indicating that the left-hander has been one of the league’s least effective pitchers so far in 2024.
Rogers doesn’t strike many batters out, and almost half of the balls hit against him exit the bat at 95 mph or faster. His 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP don’t inspire confidence should he be asked (or allowed) to pitch in October.
Eflin is a bit more formidable. He’s delivered quality starts in his first two outings for the Orioles and has lasted at least five innings in all but one of his 21 starts this season, which he began with the Tampa Bay Rays.
However, his .264 batting average ranks near the bottom fifth among 68 qualified pitchers. Eflin is solid, but he just isn’t that dominant arm you know is going to stifle whoever steps in the box.
As for the bullpen, it’s less about who Baltimore did acquire and more about who it didn’t.
Both Dominguez and Soto are electric; their respective fastball velocities are among the top five percent in baseball. Dominguez rarely allows hard contact, while Soto’s excellent whiff rate atones for his alarming walk rate.
The former Philadelphia Phillies relievers will assuredly strengthen the Orioles’ bullpen, but the closer spot remains a question mark.
Kimbrel has blown six saves in 29 chances this season. Yennier Cano is second on the team with five saves but has blown three.
Tanner Scott would have alleviated the ninth-inning headaches. Look at his Baseball Savant metrics. THAT is dominance.
Still, I don’t resent Elias for not acquiring Scott. The San Diego Padres gave the Marlins three of their top five prospects for him.
Elias had his own bundle of prospects he could have traded, but it’s reasonable to step away if the price isn’t right.
That could have been the case with Detroit starter Tarik Skubal, who ultimately stayed with the Tigers. Rumors circulated that Baltimore would potentially trade away top infield prospect Jackson Holliday to acquire the left-handed ace.
With all that said, the Orioles are still damn good.
Burnes is a quality start machine and the ace of a rotation, with the majors’ sixth-lowest ERA entering Monday. The bullpen has been average, but Dominguez and Soto are certainly upgrades.
And the offense? Explosive.
Baltimore’s 174 home runs and .774 OPS currently lead the majors. Adding Eloy Jimenez in a low-risk trade with the Chicago White Sox provides the Orioles with another power bat, one that especially punishes lefties.
Overall, Baltimore’s already loaded roster is even deeper, and Eflin and Dominguez bring World Series experience to a club on a quest to return there—and win it—for the first time in over four decades.
The Orioles may not have landed the big-time arm that would have complemented their fearsome lineup with an untouchable pitching staff, but that may not matter.
