PHOTO USA Today Sports Images As the MLB trade deadline looms, several teams still need to decide if they’re contenders or pretenders in 2024. For those who have already decided, there’s value in playing the consequences of their choice. Here are our best bets for Tuesday, July 30.
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
James Paxton makes his return to Boston. The Red Sox acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had designated the big left-hander for assignment, with visions of a push toward the playoffs.
He gets the right opponent in his first game back in the American League in Seattle, which has rivaled the Chicago White Sox for the most punchless lineup in the majors. The Mariners have been even worse at the plate than the White Sox in some ways; Chicago gets the bat on the ball when it makes an out.
Seattle has been active ahead of the deadline in hopes of resolving the contact issues.
As of Tuesday, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,105 strikeouts. The Mariners have averaged 9.75 strikeouts per game over their past four contests, even though the offense has exploded over that stretch. Seattle has scored 29 runs in its past four games, but the Mariners’ reliance on the long ball (Seattle ranks 10th in the majors in home runs) means they still fan far too often. Paxton isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, but he’s a good one, and this is a low total against a lineup that’s far too aggressive.
James Paxton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+135, DraftKings)
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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
After 15 straight losses, it’s clear that Chicago has dropped all pretenses of competing.
They weren’t doing much before July and are wretched this month. They’re now 3-20 this month, and they’ve failed to cover in five of their past six games.
They’ve been especially poor against Kansas City. The Royals seem to know full well that they need every win they can get against the White Sox to make the playoffs because they have pounded the daylights out of Chicago all season long. Kansas City is 10-1 against the White Sox this year, and the Royals have covered the runline in nine of those 10 wins.
The runline is usually the way to go when the White Sox are involved. Chicago has been so bad this season that there’s usually no value on the moneyline when fading the Sox.
And the White Sox bullpen has been a total catastrophe.
On Monday, Chris Flexen gave the White Sox six good innings and left with a 4-2 lead. Kansas City promptly unloaded for six runs in the eighth inning, turning what was a comfortable lead into another loss. With the White Sox’ pitching looking like a complete mess, the Royals should be able to cover the runline here.
Kansas City -1.5 (-108, BetRivers)
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
When the wind is blowing out, take the over. That should hold up again here, as 13 MPH winds in Baltimore and a reasonable total make for an attractive total for bettors.
The teams just played a doubleheader on Monday and scored a combined 28 runs in the two games, which brought the bullpens into play. With a quick turnaround between playing two games on Monday and another on Tuesday, this game has the potential to be all hands on deck for the pitchers available.
That’s a problem with the Blue Jays, because Toronto’s bullpen was already a problem. The Jays’ bullpen ERA is second-worst in the majors, ahead of only the Rockies.
After trying to hold the Orioles’ potent offense in check for 18 innings, the Jays could really use an off day. Another duel with Baltimore’s lineup will be anything but a vacation.
Over 8.5 Runs (-105, DraftKings)
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