MLB Futures: Finding betting value to start the second half

With the All-Star Game in the books, the second half of the season begins on Friday, making now the time to check out futures markets.

There’s value available if you know where to look.

A team or player on this list offers excellent value for the bet in question. It might be because of a surprise season or reflect a decent team that’s one bat or arm away from making a title run. It certainly won’t be the Chicago White Sox, who have provided no value at all this season and sit an incredible 32.5 games out of first place in the American League Central.

Here’s a dive into the available plays with a few values remaining on the board.

World Series

The biggest bet on the board offers a fair amount of value for anyone ready to buy into the surprise teams of the 2024 season.

You can still get the Cleveland Guardians at FanDuel at +1800 despite the club leading the AL with a .611 winning percentage.

At the other end of the spectrum — not quite as distant are the White Sox and Oakland Athletics — the Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the year’s biggest disappointments. The Jays were a dark horse World Series play, but they’re now going off at +30000 to win the title at multiple books.

While the Jays struggle, the best value lies in their division. The Baltimore Orioles (+700) have almost every piece of the puzzle to win a world title. They score the second-most runs in the American League and boast a quality rotation, key to any series in their own division. The big question with Baltimore is what the Orioles have learned from last year’s flameout. Baltimore got swept out of the playoffs last season, and the young club remains in the proving grounds this postseason.

One team they’ll need to watch is the Houston Astros (+2000), who are built for the postseason. Unlike Baltimore, Houston has proven it can handle postseason pressures. If the Astros make the playoffs, they are dangerous, especially if aging ace Justin Verlander gets back to form.

AL Winner

Getting the Guardians (+700) at this price is insane. Their bullpen has dominated this season, posting a 2.62 ERA. From the book perspective, the Guardians aren’t likely to get as much action as the more popular New York Yankees, Orioles or Astros to win the American League.

The Boston Red Sox (+1600) also represent incredible value. They’re a longshot because they’ll be hard-pressed to beat the Orioles for the division, but if they qualify, they have the potential to be disruptive.

NL Winner

The National League could come down to East behemoths, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Dismissing the Dodgers seems foolhardy, but Los Angeles doesn’t have the pitching to get through a short series at the moment. The value isn’t there to take Philadelphia (+210), but the Phils are so tough at home that it’s not the worst play on the board.

If value is the play, try the Pittsburgh Pirates (+12000). They have the fourth-worst odds because everyone believes the owners will go cheap at the deadline. But if the Pirates stay the course, they’re close to a playoff slot.

AL MVP

Aaron Judge (-370) is having a phenomenal year. The question is not whether he’ll win the MVP, but whether he’ll win the Triple Crown. The Yankees aren’t the same team without him. At -370, there is no value here. The next best play is Gunnar Henderson (+310), but the Orioles’ shortstop just hasn’t matched Judge in any production category.

NL MVP

Even without his pitching abilities, Shohei Ohtani remains an otherworldly talent. Ohtani’s name recognition and talent level means he’s almost certain to win this award. Taking anyone else seems foolish, but the -375 odds indicate books think this race is over.

Bryce Harper (+410) is at least in the mix and has had months where he’s unstoppable. But Ohtani’s hitting has been second to none and he faces a below-average second half schedule. That should give him a big edge.

–Dan Angell, Field Level Media