May 18, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The first weekend of July has arrived. Enjoy this slate of baseball while you can. Before you know it, we’ll reach the MLB All-Star break and hit that dead zone of sports where the only stuff to watch will be the ESPYs and maybe the Tour de France, if you’re one of those people.
We’re going to play a baseball doubleheader with a WNBA upset for our nightcap. On with the picks:
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Yes, we’re going to open with the Yanks and the Sox for the second straight day. And yes, it’s a home run prop pick again. But you’ll forgive the repetition when you hear more.
The Yankees look horrendous right now. With losses in nine of their last 11 and 15 of their last 20, they may be the coldest team in baseball. After the way the Red Sox rallied to win in 10 innings Friday night when the Yankees were one strike away from a 3-1 victory, it all ranks somewhere between demoralizing and just plain shameful for them at this point.
So we arrive on Saturday, when Gerrit Cole takes the mound. That might soothe Yankees fans’ nerves on any other day, but they know as well as anyone that Rafael Devers owns Cole. His career line against the New York ace: 12-for-36 (.316), seven homers, 17 RBIs. Devers, Boston’s home run leader, figures to go yard again today. Because, of course he will.
The pick: Rafael Devers over 0.5 home runs, +250 (DraftKings)
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San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have one of the better all-around teams in baseball, yet their park has become a surprise hitter’s paradise in 2024. Progressive Field ranks as one of the five friendliest MLB parks for hitters overall and the fourth friendliest for home runs this year, according to Statcast.
Friday’s series opener against San Francisco only produced six total runs, but maybe that will change with Logan Allen on the bump for Cleveland. Allen’s home ERA is worse than his road ERA both this season and for his (brief) career, and he’s been good for a six- or seven-run game once every five outings or so.
That’s great timing if you’re a Giants fan. While the Guardians have the third-best record in baseball, their recent 3-6 stretch doesn’t inspire, while San Francisco has gone 8-3 in its past 11, winning series against the likes of the Dodgers and Braves. We like the Giants to win again today, but keeping in mind their 25th-ranked staff ERA and the ballpark tendency, let’s bundle it with the over.
The pick: Giants win moneyline/Over 8.5 total runs, +280 (DraftKings)
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Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx
If the W isn’t your thing, I’ll gladly catch you up. The 14-6 Minnesota Lynx have been the surprise team of the season. They won the in-season Commissioner’s Cup title, and their best all-around player is Napheesa Collier, who’s averaging a double-double (20.0 points, 10.2 rebounds) and should be in the DPOY mix as well (2.2 steals, 1.5 blocks).
Now, here’s what Vegas may not have realized yet. Collier suffered a non-contact foot injury in Minnesota’s last game on Thursday. The team has said nothing yet about her status for Saturday or going forward, but the “non-contact” part tells me we should fear the worst.
The Lynx’s opponent, the Mystics, got off to a 0-12 start to the season but are 5-4 since, showing signs of life at least on offense. I’ll take them to cover the spread against a team that we should assume won’t have its best player.
The pick: Mystics +8.5, -110 (DraftKings)
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